Key power Egypt and the Middle East conflict From Israel’s mortal enemy to peace mediator

Egypt has waged bitter wars against Israel and suffered devastating defeats. In 1978, Cairo dared to take the path to peace. Today, the Arab country is indispensable as a mediator in the Middle East conflict.

“No war against Israel without Egypt, no peace without Syria” – for a long time this was the geostrategic rule of thumb for the conflict in the Middle East. But it has changed dramatically. While Syria is facing an uncertain future under Islamist leadership and is currently out of the picture in terms of power politics and diplomacy, Israel and the terrorist organisation Hamas wanted to sign US President Donald Trump’s peace plan on Monday in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt.

In addition to the USA, Qatar and Turkey are also among the mediating states in the long-awaited agreement, but Egypt has always played a key role in the Middle East conflict as the most populous Arab country with great cultural influence and Israel’s direct neighbour. Cairo has waged war against the Jewish state on several occasions. As the supreme power of the Arab allies, it suffered devastating defeats in 1948 and in the Six-Day War of June 1967. At that time, it lost control of the Gaza Strip and the Sinai.

However, the failed reconquest in the 1973 Yom Kippur War brought about a change of heart and negotiations. In 1979, Egypt became the first Arab nation to make peace with Israel and officially recognise the country. President Anwar al-Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1978 for their efforts. However, Egypt had violated the “Three No’s” of the Arab League: no peace with, no recognition of and no negotiations with Israel. As a result, the country was expelled from the League – its headquarters only returned to Cairo in 1990 after it was reinstated. Sadat even paid for his desire for peace with his life in an Islamist assassination attempt in 1981.

However, his successor Husni Mubarak continued the course of détente and at the same time supported the idea of an independent Palestine. Egypt thus increasingly became a mediator: as early as 1995, Israelis and Palestinians signed the second agreement of the Oslo process in Taba, Egypt.

Among the fundamentalist Muslim Brotherhood and large sections of the Egyptian population, the old hatred of Israel remained deeply rooted – and still is today. However, in terms of economic and security policy, the two states continued to draw closer together. Egypt promised Israel gas supplies in 2005 and both countries regarded the Islamist terrorist organisation Hamas, which took power in the Gaza Strip in 2007, as a dangerous opponent. The Egyptian army repeatedly sealed off the Egyptian border crossing at Rafah.

After the “Arab Spring” in 2011, even Egyptian President and Muslim Brother Mohammed Morsi upheld the peace treaty with Jerusalem. After his overthrow by the military, his successor Abdel Fattah al-Sisi largely silenced the fundamentalists, had hundreds of Hamas tunnels blown up for the smuggling of people and materials and further expanded economic cooperation with the neighbouring country. Egypt also diplomatically supported the reconciliation of other Arab states with Israel in the so-called Abraham Accords.

Even after the terrorist attack by Hamas on 7 October 2023, Cairo was one of the most important diplomatic players. Last March, Egypt presented its own peace plan for the release of the hostages and the withdrawal of Israel, which is partly reminiscent of the agreement that has now been signed, for example with the proposal of a “technocratic government” in the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, the Rafah crossing has become a bottleneck for humanitarian aid into the combat zone.

In contrast, the Egyptian government vehemently rejected Trump’s proposal to relocate the 2.2 million Palestinians to neighbouring countries, including the Sinai, and insisted on aid money for a future for the people in Gaza – above all because al-Sisi’s regime cannot have any interest in the influx of hundreds of thousands of traumatised, often radicalised war refugees.

With a view to the upcoming reconstruction of the coastal region, Egypt is also likely to play a decisive role in the future. After two years of war, more than 90 per cent of the Gaza Strip has been destroyed. Following the peace summit, the Nile country is also due to host an international conference on reconstruction in a few weeks’ time – a task almost as big as peace itself.