Aontú can be proud of outpolling well-funded establishment parties

While media commentators are trying to ignore the relative success of Peadar Tóibín’s movement, he deserves much credit for what he has achieved so far, writes Michael Kelly

To describe the campaign for the Dáil byelections as underwhelming would be kind. In reality, the whole thing was painfully dull and the only interesting moments were the revelation of anti-immigrant outbursts from the Fianna Fáil candidate in Dublin Fingal Lorraine Clifford-Lee and the bizarre warning about ISIS children from her Fine Gael counterpart in Wexford Verona Murphy.

A lot of the commentary since the results came in has inevitably focused on the victors. Sinn Féin’s success in Dublin Mid-West (not Dublin North West as claimed by the party’s hapless northern leader Michelle O’Neill on Twitter) is being seen as a shot in the arm for the party.

There have been rumblings about the leadership of Mary Lou McDonald and Ms O’Neill after the party suffered a number of embarrassing electoral humiliations earlier this year, the byelections will quell that for how.

The election of the Green Party candidate in Dublin Fingal Joe O’Brien is not exactly the ‘wave’ that party’s relatively modest success was hailed as in the local elections. But, it is a sign that the Greens will be a force to be reckoned with in the general election – at least in urban areas.

Support

Fianna Fáil taking the seats in both Wexford and Cork North Central will be seen as an endorsement of sorts of party leader Micheál Martin and his support for Fine Gael. Though, it should also be noted that both of the party’s successful candidates were formidable local representatives before the poll.

One might easily conclude now to the victor go the spoils. But, in Ireland’s system of multi-seat constituencies with proportional representation, the results of the other parties in a byelection do matter. Now, there’s a major health warning about extrapolating anything too much given the pathetic turnout, but it’s hard to see the polls as anything other than a satisfying day for pro-life republican party Aontú.

It is the party’s first outing in a constituency-wide poll in the South, and the results show that it has achieved what many fledgling political movements have not: it has survived and lived to put up a credible flight in the general election.

Aontú is the only party in the Dáil which does not receive a single red cent from the establishment”

In Wexford, Cllr Jim Codd achieved a respectable 5.2%. Both Fine Gael TDs from Wexford secured their seats in the last general election by polling just over 10% each. That would mean that Cllr Codd would have to double his vote to win a seat, but it’s nowhere near an impossibility.

In Cork North Central the Aontú candidate – Finian Toomey – polled 3.9% of the first preferences. In the local elections held earlier this year, the Green Party polled 5.5% and this translated into a seat count of 49 across all local authorities.

Interestingly, both Aontú candidates in the byelections also picked up some transfers from those who polled below them when they were eliminated. Transfers are key to winning seats and pushing candidates closer to the quota, so while first preferences are vital to staying in the race, second and third preferences are the stuff of electoral gains.

The achievements of Aontú in Friday’s election is all the more remarkable when one considers that the party receives absolutely no State funding.

The party – led by Peadar Tóibín – outpolled Independents for Change, People Before Profit and the Social Democrats.

Last year, Independents for Change got €257,472 in funds from the taxpayer, People Before Profit drew down €386,208 and the Social Democrats received €193,104 from the State.

Aontú is the only party in the Dáil which does not receive a single red cent from the establishment. Mr Tóibín put it well this week when he described the byelection as “a David versus Goliath result for Aontú. We did not exist last year, we are the only Dáil party with no funding, we get the scraps off the table as far as media coverage goes and yet we are challenging the establishment parties and have a real chance of a seat in Wexford in the next general election.”

In that light it is impressive, and Mr Tóibín will be hoping that the weekend results are replicated in the Westminster elections in the North due to be held later this month.

The party is very much in building mode, and no one thinks they have even a fighting chance of taking one of the region’s 18 seats in the UK Parliament. But, that’s to see the contest in a one-dimensional way: the real test for Aontú in the North is how many votes it can shave off both the SDLP and Sinn Féin.

Values

The traditional parties of nationalism have abandoned many of the values that were key to a largely Catholic electorate in the North. Aontú will want to capitalise on this and put themselves in pole position to make further gains at local level in the North and be in serious contention for seats in the power-sharing Assembly (if it ever gets up and running again).

Mr Tóibín and the Aontú team he has built deserve much credit for doing as well as they’ve done. And he deserves to be talked about in the media more than he is.

The fact that the relative impact the movement is having is being largely ignored in the media is proof positive that the establishment plan is to try to starve the nascent organisation of oxygen at birth. You’d nearly think they were nervous of permitting diverse opinions in politics.