The Harland & Wolff Cranes at the docks in Belfast - Once, city was behind only London and Liverpool in terms of its industrial importance 
The North’s coming election is about a struggle between the two traditions on this island, writes Bishop Donal McKeown
Bishop Donal McKeown
The entire Brexit project remains a step into the unknown for everybody. Thus we remain unclear as to the possible effects, especially on border counties.
But what history tells us is that Belfast, from being the third industrial city of the UK before Partition (with shipbuilding, tobacco, linen and rope-making it lay behind only London and Liverpool), with the creation of Northern Ireland and the creation of the border, gradually became a relative industrial irrelevancy.
There is fear that the loss of the European dimension – which helped to open up Northern Ireland in general and the border counties in particular – will again adversely affect the more recent growth in the North and relegate the whole area to an off-shore appendage of Great Britain.
However, another possible effect might well be a reconsideration of whether the economic future of Northern Ireland actually lies in the UK or in a new all-Ireland structure, as – in practice – the North and the Republic have become increasingly interlinked as regards the agri-food sectors, tourism and flexible working practices.
A hard border would also be quoted by some as proof that Northern Ireland is not actually a viable economic entity, cut off from the rest of the island.
On top of the above economic questions, the legal dimension also raises issues. The peace process in the North (along with the border counties) benefitted from major Peace I-IV investments from the European Union (EU).
Role
Furthermore, the role of Europe in the North helped to internationalise the status of the new institutions.
However, the current Brexit situation also coincides with a questioning of whether the institutions that were set up on the basis of the Good Friday agreement are actually fit for purpose 20 years on. In other words, is the emphasis on equality of opportunity based on ‘perceived religious affiliation’ (i.e. the assumption that everyone could/should be classified as Protestant, Catholic or other) a valid criterion in 2017?
The questioning of the basis for the institutions established by the Good Friday Agreement may well be exploited by different groups, for example people like [Traditional Unionist Voice assembly member] Jim Allister arguing that we should have a majority government as in other jurisdictions rather than an enforced coalition which is in major difficulties, or Sinn Féin’s suggestion that we need to go further towards joint rule.
The maintenance of a hard border would raise a series of difficult questions, not just about how to organise the border checks, but how to protect those members of the customs service who would be working there.
It may be possible for there to be a much larger role for electronic control of the eventual border posts. But it would be no surprise if some groups chose to use the presence of UK border personnel as an opportunity for renewed violence.
The election, just called for March 2, supports the thesis that in the North the war is over but that the conflict between Irishness/Republicanism and Unionism is alive and well, and that the Troubles were about political identity and not theological persuasion.
The prospective approach of the centenary of the foundation of Northern Ireland in 2022 may well be seen as a spur to both unionism and nationalism to ensure that the centenary is or is not reached.
However, it is important for outsiders to recognise that this election has been precipitated by Sinn Féin, not just because of one issue but in the context of the macro struggle between the two political and cultural traditions on the island.
