Photo Credit: Law of Order Blog/ Getty Images. 
The View
Martin Mansergh
Electoral decisions here as elsewhere help determine how and in what state we will face the world in the time ahead.
The loosening of the divorce laws, overwhelmingly approved by the electorate in the face of negligible public debate and muted opposition, is probably the last referendum here for the time being on a socio-moral question. Different issues were bundled into the one decision. The four-year separation period, without which the referendum permitting divorce in 1995 would not have been carried, served a purpose in indicating that divorce should not be thought, or treated lightly as, an easy process. The divorce rate does seem to be significantly lower than in most other developed countries, and hopefully this will continue even with the shorter period.
More troubling to some people would have been the transfer of responsibility for future legislative change in this area to the Oireachtas. The argument here, also applied to other areas, is that the Constitution is a blunt, inflexible instrument, incapable of nuance, which is not actually true.
Control
On the other hand, a degree of constitutional control has significantly contributed to the cohesion of society, giving the people in important and sensitive areas a degree of final control. The Oireachtas, particularly at a time when minority coalitions reliant on independent support have become the norm, can be pressed into taking decisions which only a small minority may feel passionate about.
The bottom line is that the two-year separation to be legislated for will not be sacrosanct into the future, and it is all too easy to foresee demands after a while that it should be further reduced or eliminated altogether. With no constitutional backing any more, how stiff will be the resistance amongst the major parties? The argument against will have to be a good deal more vigorously conducted than it has been on this occasion.
While the Constitution still requires applicants for divorce to satisfy the court of proper provision being made for a spouse and children, there are many instances where in terms of outcomes post-judgment this remains aspirational.
“In Europe, the populist forces have not had an unequivocal victory that some were fearing”
There is much anecdotal evidence that a wealthier spouse can too often be tempted to hide, away from bank accounts, income or assets that are not adjudicated upon, not to mention difficulties that arise in enforcing maintenance. Divorce or separation is rarely a good financial strategy for anyone.
It has been suggested that there ought to be a class of marriage for those who mean to make an unbreakable commitment to each other. Church weddings exist precisely for that purpose. However, it is not realistic to think that legislation would be introduced to allow for two classes of marriage, one indissoluble, the other not. The days when the State will introduce laws to provide legal sanctions as a back-up for Church-inspired rules are long gone. Those who choose as far as possible to live by religious disciplines must be free to do so, but will have to rely in the main on their own resources and on the faith to which they adhere.
***
A persistent question has arisen over the last decade or so as to whether those to whom religious values matter above all need to be politically organised, now that no substantial mainstream political party can be relied on to reflect or articulate faithfully clear religious positions as the basis for a broadly consistent legal and/or constitutional position.
As local and European election results around the island appear to show, candidates for new parties that major on socio-moral issues may be elected here and there, but show little sign of developing either critical mass or significant staying-power. It is a matter for debate and analysis as to how far voting patterns for long-established parties are influenced by differences in approach to the handling of socio-moral issues.
Despite all the sea-changes of recent years, the Catholic Church in particular, but also religion in general, is still part of the mainstream of Irish life, even if, very obviously, past dominance is gone. However imperfect a remedy it may be, it is surely better to continue to work with and through the mainstream, than opt for a purer but marginalized minority position.
This is very clearly the Vatican’s approach to the European Union, which it has always strongly if discreetly supported, despite there being no doubt multiple sources of dissatisfaction with EU positions on many issues.
The election results, which are still coming in at the time of writing, do not show any swing in Ireland to populism either at the right or left end of the political spectrum. The increase in support for the Greens is a good development. I would also have liked to have seen a stronger recovery in Labour Party support. The centre is certainly holding its own.
“It is not clear that an election would produce a substantially different result”
In Europe, the populist forces have not had an unequivocal victory that some were fearing. Even in Britain, despite the strong support for the new Brexit party, it is far from clear whether those wanting to drive Brexit through still have the majority of the population behind them. The problem is that virtually every resolution of the impasse will be bitterly divisive.
British Prime Minister Theresa May has battled valiantly against mounting odds, but eventually found herself facing checkmate. What, if anything, a successor will be able to do to change the situation remains to be seen. The position of Northern Ireland continues to be up in the air.
The pause in Brexit till late October creates a window of opportunity for a General Election here, even though the current supply and confidence arrangement carries through to next year. It is not clear that an election would produce a substantially different result.
President Trump visits Ireland next month. There was also strong opposition to Presidents Reagan and George W. Bush in their time. It would be wise to show respect for the office, and allow the good people of Doonbeg their day in the sun.
